Nomura Forecasts India's GDP Growth to Slow Down to 6.2% in FY26.
Economy Business
In June 2025, Japanese brokerage firm Nomura projected that India's real GDP growth would ease to 6.2% in FY26. In a research note, the firm highlighted a widening "divergence" between headline indicators like GST collections and core economic metrics such as automobile sales and bank credit growth.
- In its recent analysis, Nomura noted that India's real GDP growth declined to 6.5% in FY25, down from 9.2% in FY24, based on the latest official data. Despite the slowdown, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects the growth rate to hold steady at 6.5% going forward, suggesting continued macroeconomic stability.
- The brokerage also revised its Nifty target for March 2026, raising it to 26,140 points from the earlier forecast of 24,970.
- This upward revision is attributed to strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and the Indian market’s ability to remain resilient despite global volatility and earnings downgrades.
Main Point :- (i) Nomura expressed a more optimistic outlook on sectors driven by domestic demand, as opposed to export-oriented industries, due to lingering global uncertainties. It also cautioned about a potential delay in the private investment cycle, pointing to continued international challenges affecting investor sentiment.
(ii) In contrast, American brokerage BofA Securities retained a constructive stance on India’s long-term outlook. It praised India's consistent delivery of high-quality, compounding stocks and identified nine structural trends that could keep investors engaged.
(iii) These include rapid infrastructure growth, rising productivity, accelerating digital transformation, and broader financial inclusion.
About Nomura Holdings, Inc.
President and Group CEO : Kentaro Okuda
Headquarters: Tokyo, Japan
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